Healthcare

Healthcare Payers in Turbulent Times

By John Murphey

Navigating policy shocks, market shifts, and the next era of competition.

The U.S. healthcare payer market has never been simple—but the 2025–2026 landscape is more than challenging.

Policy shifts are arriving at a pace that demands action, not observation. From bold updates to Medicare Advantage (MA) reimbursement formulas, to new interoperability mandates, to the rapid enforcement of price transparency rules, every change is reshaping the ground beneath the industry.

This isn’t compliance as usual. These reforms are rewriting the business playbook—reshaping economics, redefining competition, and sparking innovation in how payers operate and deliver value.

For healthcare payers, the moment is both urgent and full of possibility: navigate the turbulence with agility, and you’re not just surviving disruption—you’re helping to shape the future of healthcare.

Why the Payer Market Is Experiencing Heightened Pressure

Current market turbulence reflects the combined influence of three significant forces. Each is impactful on its own, but together they are reshaping the operating environment for healthcare payers.

1. Government Policy Changes Are Affecting Margins


Medicare Advantage—an important source of growth for many payers in recent years—is undergoing increased regulatory oversight. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is revising risk adjustment methodologies, enhancing audit processes, and expanding reporting requirements. These developments are introducing new variables into what has historically been a stable margin structure.
In the commercial sector, expanded price transparency requirements now make negotiated rates accessible to employers, consumers, and competitors. This greater visibility is influencing contracting strategies and market dynamics.

2. Economic Conditions Are Contributing to Additional Strain


Rising healthcare delivery costs, particularly in labor and specialty pharmaceuticals, are contributing to upward pressure on medical loss ratios (MLRs). Even when premium revenues remain consistent, these expense trends are narrowing profitability.
Payers’ ability to offset these costs is constrained by regulatory oversight of rate adjustments, and significant premium increases may impact member retention.

3. Competitive Dynamics Are Intensifying


Market entrants from outside the traditional payer space—including retail organizations, telehealth-oriented insurers, and technology-enabled third-party administrators (TPAs)—are introducing new models that emphasize cost efficiency, network flexibility, and digital engagement. Simultaneously, provider-sponsored health plans are leveraging vertical integration to align care delivery with financing in ways that strengthen their competitive positioning.

The interaction of these forces is creating a market landscape in which established strategies require careful reassessment. Forward-looking adaptation will be essential to sustain performance and remain competitive.

From Compliance to Competitive Strategy

Here’s the strategic shift payers must make to stop treating government policy changes as a compliance exercise and start treating them as competitive catalysts.

Yes, compliance is table stakes but the organizations that thrive will go further. They’ll see policy shifts as signals of where the market is headed and position accordingly.

For example:

  • Interoperability Mandates: Instead of treating them as an IT headache, use them to power next-generation member engagement and care coordination.
  • Price Transparency: Don’t just meet the posting requirements, package and analyze your data to identify competitive opportunities and improve network performance.
  • MA Risk Adjustment Changes: Treat them as a catalyst to invest in better clinical documentation, population health analytics, and member outreach.

In short, the winners will pivot from reactive compliance to proactive strategy.

The Policy Shifts Shaping the Next 24 Months

Let’s break down the most impactful changes—and what they mean for payer strategy.

1. Medicare Advantage Recalibration

  • What’s Changing: CMS is phasing in a new risk adjustment model (V28) that reduces payments for specific common diagnosis codes and places greater emphasis on data integrity.
  • Impact: Lower per-member-per-month (PMPM) revenue for plans with historically high coding intensity; higher audit exposure.
  • Strategic Response: Invest in provider education, predictive analytics for coding accuracy, and proactive member engagement to ensure appropriate documentation.

2. Interoperability and Patient Access Final Rules

  • What’s Changing: Payers must offer APIs that allow patients to access their health data via third-party apps and enable smoother data exchange across payers when members switch plans.
  • Impact: Increased operational complexity—but also a potential member experience differentiator.
  • Strategic Response: Leverage interoperability infrastructure not just for compliance, but to enable real-time care gap alerts, personalized wellness nudges, and competitive retention programs.

3. Price Transparency Expansion

  • What’s Changing: Payers must publish machine-readable files of negotiated rates and historical claims, alongside consumer-friendly cost estimator tools.
  • Impact: Employers and members can easily compare plan value, putting pressure on overpriced networks and underperforming benefit designs.
  • Strategic Response: Use transparency data to renegotiate with providers, identify network inefficiencies, and create marketing that highlights actual value.

4. Medicaid Redetermination

  • What’s Changing: The post-pandemic continuous coverage requirement has ended, prompting states to reverify eligibility for millions of Medicaid enrollees.
  • Impact: Large-scale member churn, with potential loss of healthy members to employer or exchange plans—and a shift in risk pools.
  • Strategic Response: Deploy targeted outreach campaigns to retain eligible members, transition others to appropriate coverage, and manage the risk impact on MLRs.

Kiran Simhadri’s Take: Navigating the Policy–Market Intersection

Kiran Simhadri, who has spent decades advising payer leadership through periods of significant regulatory change, observes that the current challenge lies not only in the volume of policy shifts but in their interdependence.

In many organizations, responses to regulatory developments are managed within separate functions —compliance teams oversee filings, provider relations adjust contracts, and marketing updates member communications. However, these changes often have overlapping effects: price transparency provisions can influence network strategies, which affect Medicare Advantage (MA) bids, which in turn shape competitive positioning. Addressing each in isolation may limit potential benefits and increase operational risk.

To address this, Simhadri recommends establishing a Policy–Market Response Council: a cross-functional body with the mandate to coordinate the organization’s approach across regulatory, economic, and competitive dimensions. The council’s objective would be to shift the focus from meeting minimum compliance requirements to identifying ways in which regulatory change can be leveraged for strategic advantage.

Operational Resilience in a Volatile Policy Environment

The turbulence in the payer market mirrors what CIOs and other enterprise leaders are experiencing in industries undergoing digital and regulatory disruption. In both cases, the key is building resilience—not just reacting to the storm but designing systems and cultures that can operate in constant change.

For payers, operational resilience comes down to four capabilities:

  1. Data Agility – Integrating claims, clinical, and external data sources to respond quickly to new reporting, audit, and analytic needs.
  2. Regulatory Intelligence – Proactively scanning for upcoming policy shifts and modeling potential impacts before they become urgent.
  3. Flexible Operating Models – Designing processes that can be rapidly reconfigured for new rules without massive rework.
  4. Cultural Adaptability – Training teams to embrace change as a constant, not an exception.

The Technology Lever

The technology investments payers make today will determine how well they navigate the next wave of policy change. Three stand out:

  • AI-Powered Risk and Compliance Tools: For predictive identification of audit risks, coding gaps, and emerging cost drivers.
  • Member Experience Platforms: Leveraging interoperability rules to deliver personalized care journeys, real-time benefits info, and proactive health prompts.
  • Advanced Analytics for Network Strategy: Using price transparency data to model network competitiveness and simulate contract scenarios.

Done right, these aren’t just defensive moves—they’re growth enablers.

Rethinking KPIs in the New Era

Traditional payer performance metrics—membership growth, MLR, and admin cost ratio—still matter. But they’re no longer sufficient to measure success in a policy-driven competitive landscape.

Consider adding:

  • Regulatory Agility Index: Time from policy finalization to operational compliance.
  • Transparency-Driven Market Share Gain: New members acquired through value-based transparency positioning.
  • Audit Resilience Score: Percentage of audit findings resolved without penalty.
  • Interoperability Engagement Rate: Member adoption of API-driven tools and services.

These KPIs shift the conversation from “Did we comply?” to “Did we compete effectively because of the change?”

Why Waiting Is Risky

In past cycles, payers could afford to take a cautious approach—let early adopters absorb the pain of new rules, then follow once the dust settled. That’s not the case in 2025.

Here’s why:

  • Compressed Timelines: Many changes are being implemented in 12–18-month windows, leaving little time for phased rollouts.
  • First-Mover Advantage: Early compliance can double as market differentiation, especially in member acquisition and employer group retention.
  • Compounding Impact: The interplay between transparency, MA adjustments, and interoperability means that a delay in one area can hurt performance in others.

In short, slow movers will be playing defense in multiple arenas at once.

The Path Forward: From Turbulence to Trajectory

While current conditions in the payer market present significant challenges, they also create opportunities. For organizations that integrate regulatory change into broader strategic planning, these developments can serve as a catalyst for long-term advantage.

A practical approach may include the following elements:

  • Map Interdependencies – Assess how individual policy changes influence one another and develop coordinated response strategies.
  • Establish Cross-Functional Response Teams – Facilitate collaboration across compliance, provider relations, information technology, marketing, and other relevant functions.
  • Invest in Adaptive Technology – Select platforms capable of accommodating future regulatory requirements, rather than addressing only current needs.
  • Leverage Policy Achievements as Market Differentiators – Incorporate compliance successes into communications with members, employers, and providers to reinforce competitive positioning.
  • Measure Outcomes Beyond Compliance – Monitor indicators that reflect market position, organizational resilience, and growth potential.

Policy has long influenced the payer market, but the pace, scope, and interrelated nature of the changes unfolding in 2025 require a different approach. Success will depend on the ability to adapt quickly, coordinate across functions, and view regulation as a potential driver of strategic advantage. Organizations that develop these capabilities will be well-positioned to strengthen their competitive standing and respond effectively to future market developments.

How Concord Can Help Payers Thrive in Policy-Driven Markets

At Concord, we have partnered with payer organizations through some of the most significant transformations in modern healthcare. This moment calls for more than meeting regulatory requirements. It calls for a coordinated, insight-driven strategy that aligns compliance with market leadership.

We work with payers to:

  • Anticipate Policy Impacts
    Using continuous regulatory intelligence and scenario modeling, we help organizations look ahead—understanding not only the specifics of new requirements, but also their implications for business models and long-term positioning.
  • Accelerate Operational Readiness
    From interoperability APIs to transparency data pipelines, our technology teams design and implement solutions that are flexible, scalable, and audit-ready from the outset.
  • Transform Compliance into Differentiation
    We translate regulatory achievements into competitive advantages, strengthening connections with employers, members, and provider partners.
  • Optimize the Intersections
    Our cross-functional approach ensures policy, economics, technology, and member experience strategies operate in alignment, creating an integrated engine for growth.
  • Strengthen Organizational Resilience
    By embedding data agility, process adaptability, and a culture of responsiveness, we prepare payers to navigate both current shifts and those still to come.

While the current environment presents undeniable challenges, it also offers extraordinary opportunities. With the right partner, payers can not only navigate regulatory change with confidence but also harness it as a catalyst for innovation, competitive strength, and sustained growth. Concord brings deep healthcare expertise, technical excellence, and proven change leadership to help make that vision a reality.

For organizations seeking to progress beyond reactive compliance, the path forward lies in building the capabilities to succeed in a policy-driven future.

In the current healthcare landscape, resilience has become an essential element of sustainable strategy and enduring performance.

To explore how we can support your next steps, contact us today!

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